Premier League - some early insights about how it will end up
Spoiler: it's all looking a little 2023-4
The Premier League is five games old, which is of course more then 10% of the way in. It's that part of the season where it's still too early to say much, but we can start to draw some tentative insights about how things are shaping up. So, here we go!
The title chasers
2023-4 saw us almost have a title race. And not one of those title races where City won all of their games and a solitary rival slipped up. Yes, City pretty much won all their games, but fives games out, there were still three teams in it, they were trading positions, and supercomputers were telling us it was Liverpool's to lose. Which they did, and it ended in depressingly familiar fashion.
The Premier League has finally given up on being competitive and unpredictable (head to Italy for that), and is firmly entrenched in its Bundesliga phase. That is, one team is far superior to the rest that they win it practically every year, and it's a case of who will emerge from the pack to make it interesting. For a while it was Liverpool, now it's Arsenal.
Let's start with City, though. Champions and champions-elect. They've started well, which doesn't always happen. Indeed, the Premier League is usually only interesting when City make a slow-ish start and they have to press the accelerator in January. But this time, they look like they may lead from the front, which doesn't bode well for the sensationalists. This sounds obvious, but it's worth stating anyway: City very, very rarely play badly. It happens maybe twice a season where you could actually say they deserve to lose. When they fail to win, it's usually because they haven't taken their chances and their opponents have; the gods of chance meddling. Furthermore, Arsenal aren't at the level of Klopp's Liverpool team that could go toe-to-toe with City. I expect City will get 90-plus points and there are only two questions:
How many of those 90-plus points will be taken off them. It could be 'zero' or 'all of them' at this point, so let's move on.
How close the rest can get.
That brings us nicely onto Arsenal. Arsenal are a very fine team indeed. Klopp's Liverpool team showed what was required to beat City, and that involved getting close to 100 points. This Arsenal team are different in that they concede fewer chances, but I don't think they are capable of getting beyond 90 points. They are also entering that phase where they will realise it's so difficult to keep doing this week after week, year after year. You need luck with injuries, a ridiculous mental fortitude, and you can't afford a slip-up in the transfer market. I wish Arsenal the best of luck, but I believe things will start to fray after Christmas.
Liverpool have started very nicely under Arne Slot, blip against Forest aside. I'm not sure they've been properly tested yet but you can only play what's in front of you. And that's the thing – Liverpool will probably continue to encounter those blips as they adapt to Slot's way of playing. There's no shame in those blips, but City don't really make them. Liverpool will do well to eclipse their total of 82 points from last season, but the gap to fourth was large enough that I don't see them slipping below third. It's also worth noting that Slot seems intent on Liverpool playing more like City and Arsenal. Part of the allure of football for me is seeing that contrast of styles; the best three teams all playing the same way is a sad indictment of how football as gone, and speaks to the enduring appeal of Jurgen Klopp.
The best of the rest of the rich kids
Onto the teams who think they should be making the Premier League more competitive, but can't quite figure out how. Like they spend all day undoing their shoelaces and re-tying them, for no apparent reason. Chelsea and Man United are the worst proponents of this craze, both having the resources to compete with City. Ironically, both would perhaps be better served by spending less and having a period where they let things develop. Chelsea actually looked okay in the second half of last season, and I thought if anyone was going to jump from the pack, it would be them. Then they sacked a thoroughly decent manager and signed loads more players, so who really knows? United have been great fun to laugh at in recent seasons, and while I expect that to continue to some degree, I actually think they made some shrewd signings and won't be as bad as last year. Goals will still be a problem, but if they can get that defence settled, that's a good building block for next season.
Then we have Spurs, who I think are going backwards. I'm not sure anyone knows what their best team is, and they always feel like a work in progress. Maddison is a wonderful footballer but the challenge will always be getting a full season out of him. He's also so specialised that when he's not there, Plan B is a big departure from Plan A. I don't understand spending that big on Solanke either. He may settle in, but his 19 goals last season practically tripled his Premier League total. A reminder that he just turned 27.
Shall we include Newcastle among the rich kids? I feel like we must, and yet they are struggling to spend all the cash they have lying around as financial rules bite. I struggle to take a side here. On the one hand, we don't want the Premier League to look the same every year, but we also get upset when someone comes along with frankly the only way to bridge the gap – silly amounts of money. We yearn for 'organic growth', whatever that is, while ignoring the fact that the top table is full, and there's only so much merch people can buy. In any case, I reckon Newcastle, despite their riches, have the 8th or 9th best team and Howe is doing a fine job. Of course, that may not be enough if he doesn't get top six.
Punching above their weight
The Premier League more often than not provides at least one team – sometimes more – that threaten the established order, often falling away as the pressure mounts and a long season takes its toll. We all love this underdog story, and a novel venture into Europe for one of the lesser lights. In recent seasons it's been West Ham, Brighton, and perversely, Newcastle. But outshining them all last year were Aston Villa. Now, Villa have hardly been thrifty over the last few years, but let's remember it's only two years since Steven Gerrard had them in 'too good to go down' territory. Emery is a genius, and they've made a good start again. They don't have the resources to stay among the elite long term, so enjoy this breath of fresh air while it lasts. The challenge for Villa will come when the fixures come thick and fast and the inevitable sticky spell arrives. The need to balance the books to some extent means they don't have a huge squad to rely on. But I wouldn't bet against them making Champions League again, as I'm not sure there is huge improvement to be found among the rich kids.
As for Brighton and West Ham, read on, I think the good times may be at an end. Will anyone else break out from the pack? Forest have made a good start but they were so bad last year it's hard to see them staying in the top half. In short, no I don't think we have a strong breakout contender, despite my hopes for Palace.
Mid-table mediocrity
Next we have those teams that will finish between 9th and 14th. There really is no shame in it, but perversely, it's dangerous to be so consistent. A little flirt with relegation followed by a lower top half finish seems better for continued employment. David Moyes has been the master of this. You can chuck Fulham and Bournemouth in here for starters, and Palace will probably end up here as well, all three having very similar seasons to the last one. Forest will probably be in this bunch as well, which has to be seen as success.
A word on Marco Silva, who I feel doesn't get enough credit and gets plenty more out of that squad than he has a right to. Emile Smith-Rowe has made a good start there as well and here's hoping he can rebuild his career. I really like the look of Palace's squad, but it looks like it might take more time to gel than I was expecting. They are such a different prospect to a couple of years ago. I watched them against United and they were disjointed and struggling to reach the same heights as last year. I think Glasner is a good manager though and they will improve.
Too good to go down
The reality is they will finish in mid-table, but I think the game is up for West Ham and Brighton, albeit for different reasons. Brighton have been the model for others to follow in the last few years and have steadily built through a fantastic recruitment policy, both in terms of players and managers. And they've done it while playing good football. I remember Southampton being in a similar position for a couple of years and it's so hard to keep doing it. They've spent a bit bigger this year as well, and they have to be careful they don't over-extend themselves. They've actually made a decent start but I think the wheels may come off at some point.
West Ham have fallen prey to a classic. Chasing a successful manager out of the club because the football isn't entertaining enough. I don't rate Julen Lopetegui, and West Ham could easily get into trouble.
An honourable mention for Wolves, but only because they over-achieved last season. This year looks like being the season most people were expecting last year.
The 17th place trophy
And then we have the rest. The new boys, of course, fall into this category. And they're joined by perennial joke club, Everton, and Brentford. Everton look like they're going to have to get used to this. A takeover looks more likely than ever, but you get the feeling any buyer would be more attracted to the prospect of a large concert venue on Liverpool docks than the football team. I like Dyche though. The's the right man for the job, and will take as many hits as he needs to and probably get Everton over the line.
Brentford. ah, Brentford. What a brilliant club and I won't hear a bad word about Thomas Frank. I'm not sure anyone would ever say anything bad about him, so no problem there. Their luck will run out at some point, but they have early points on the board. That said, last season was a struggle and it might be the same this time around. Fingers crossed they stay up.
We have a bit of a theme here that the clubs at the bottom have managers I really rate. But the reality is some of them will lose their jobs, which is a great shame. Cooper maybe took Forest as far as he could, but he's a good appointment at Leicester and arguably stands more chance of keeping them up then Maresca would have done (Cooper for Chelsea! Actually no, don't do it Steve, you're better than that). McKenna has Ipswich playing okay after a horrible early fixture list. I think it's two from the aforementioned four and Wolves.
Southampton are doomed. It's very noble what Russell Martin is going for, but it's been shown many times before that it simply doesn't work. Defences are better at this level, and pressing traps are more sophisticated, opposition managers are smarter and better at exploiting your weaknesses. On top of that, Southampton aren't taking the chances they create. That's not something that suddenly clicks into place, it's a trend. And when they concede chances, they tend to be big ones, the sort that get punished. Best of luck to them, but it's not looking promising.
So there we have it. In case it's not obvious, I'm a bit cynical of this 'best league in the world' schtick. It's a league which is won and lost primarily on financial strength rather than sporting merit, and it's becoming increasingly predictable, no matter what Gary Neville says every October about the standard being the best it's ever been. We've had a couple of decent stories in recent years with Villa, Brighton and West Ham getting into the top half (and Everton providing the entertainment at the bottom). Brighton and West Ham though feel like they're reaching the end of a cycle and it's hard to see who breaks from the pack this year.
And at the top, City look as imperious as ever. If you're looking for drama this season, it will probably be in the courtroom.