European football is about to enter its third structural phase when the league phase of the Champions League gets underway next week.
The group phase we’ve all become used to is no more, after being around since 1992. It had a pretty good run, and generally speaking, I’m an advocate of a ‘two from four’ qualification format.
But it had become stale. Not necessarily because of the format, but because of the concentration of talent residing at a handful of super rich clubs. Six games doesn’t offer the jeopardy it once did, and the top clubs could afford a couple of off days and still breeze through to the knockout phase. By Matchday 5, we were seeing effectively dead rubbers.
And so we arrive at a new format, and at first glance it looks chaotic and unnecessarily complex. A 36-team mega league, with eight matches picked almost at random. Top eight qualify, the next 16 sort of qualify. The rest are out.
So who does this benefit? The company line is that this guarantees more matches between the top teams. I don’t buy it. Partly because I’m a ‘less is more’ advocate, and partly because matches between the top teams only matter when the stakes are high.
In my lifetime, my club, Liverpool, have had four European ties against Barcelona. There was, of course, the semi final in 18/19, close to the peak of footballing drama. And another semi-final in the UEFA Cup in 00/01. These are the two are strongest in my memory.
There was also the 06/07 meeting, most famous for the Craig Bellamy gold club celebration, and two games in the 01/02 group phase which I’d forgotten about until I looked it up.
Then there is the financial aspect. Every team in the league phase is guaranteed eight matches, bringing more gate receipts and all the other monetary goodness that follows. The flip side is that the extra two games are scheduled for January, right around the time when English teams are often flagging after a hectic Christmas period.
There is also a new playoff round for the teams placed 9th-24th. If volume of matches is the name of the game, well, finishing in the top eight qualifies you past the playoff and into the Round of 16.
Is it skewed towards the big leagues and clubs? Maybe, but only a little. Qualification slots are largely unchanged compared to the group stages of yesteryear. The main difference is that the increase from 32 teams to 36 sees the extra four slots go to teams with the highest co-efficients that didn’t qualify outright. Effectively a safety net for teams with a strong recent European record.
What about the fans? More games to see, of course. But what about the experience, what about the stakes?
Well, I’m torn on this. I imagine managers will be keen to qualify for the top eight and avoid the playoff round, which brings knockout jeopardy and two extra matches in February. I can see teams pushing for this.
But elimination only comes from finishing in the bottom 12. 24 from 36 is more a case of avoiding a shock than proactively seeking qualification.
Several simulations of this on Football Manager - the oracle for this sort of thing - shows a couple of things…
First, at the top end of the league, the margins are small, and there will be volatility in the rankings. Around 15 or 16 points will be required to make the top eight, and a point gained or dropped could be worth around four places.
Below that though, avoiding elimination will be in the 7-9 points range. Basically a point per game, and it’s hard to see the bigger teams succumbing to that. We may see a few fairy tales, but we’re unlikely to see major shocks.
After that, we have a knockout with an extra round. Maybe that’s a good thing for those who think knockouts are the cornerstone of tournament football.
In closing, I think most people I speak to simply don’t understand the format at this point, and it’s going to take some getting used to. It certainly seems more convoluted than the usual group stages. The as-it-stands league table is going to be a fixture to keep track of it all.
The thing nobody has considered is that it isn’t going to fit on the screen.
TME